Immigration: Only Hope for States that Supported Trump

The northern states, where industry for the most part is the main economic sector, were the key to Trump's victory in being elected president of the United States. In some ways, this was a code message from these states to revive their stagnant economy.

Although his position against Latin immigrants, mainly Mexicans, has been ironclad, even suggesting the construction of a wall between the two countries, it will be in this population where the hope will be found to reactivate the dynamics of the American economy.

The mass deportation of immigrants, according to President-elect Trump's plans, would completely ruin the manufacturing industry in the Midwest.

Demographic decrease is another important factor. Low population growth is an index that is of great importance for all growing economies. If there is no population that consumes, there is no production, the economy decreases and, consequently, the population becomes impoverished.

Migration as a Growth Factor

Although some states that voted for Trump such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin, which represent 12% of the total population, actually totaled 1% of the overall growth of the United States. Without the participation of immigrants in these four representative states for the Republican election to the White House, the population would have decreased by 60%.

Since 2010, nearly half a million immigrants have moved to these states, representing an important driver of economic growth. In any case, the phenomenon responsible for slowing the growth of these four states during 2016 is internal migration. More than 110,000 people emigrated from these four states during the year in question.

The future of Internal Migration

The states of Texas and Florida are the states with the highest incidence of internal migrants, that is, they receive inhabitants from other states every year. Likewise, Washington, North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia are other favorite states to move to in the United States. By the beginning of the third decade of the 21st century, the main northern states that supported Trump—Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin—could see their economic growth problems worsen, due to three main factors.

The first is the retirement age; The population ages, migrating to states with a more favorable climate, such as Florida. Second, new families, thinking about their children, decide on states that are less harsh in terms of climate. Third, economic stagnation causes companies and people to move to other states with greater growth, such as California, Florida or Texas.


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